A Cold Day Inside the ANC

Winter has swung by early, not just for the country than the ruling elite. And, as the results were trickling in at the IEC Results Operations Centre, one was carefully scrutinising the faces on the floor. Far from the wide, chirpy grins we’ve grown to know. Some were gutted, unmistakably uneasy. A throwback to former president Jacob Zuma’s sullen expression when his anointed candidate, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, lost to incumbent president Cyril Ramaphosa at the ANC elective Conference in 2017. Except this time the tables had turned: Zuma was the one grinning (even treated to a rockstar-like reception) whilst his former comrades gazed listlessly at the big screens, occassionally unleashing their frustrations on the media and whomsoever else should dare to ask a patronizing question.

The grinning former Teflon President grins once more. Image: Wikipedia.

For their sins, – whether the media have been hostile to the ruling party – the voters have put paid to that matter. Resoundingly, they have demonstrated that it’s nothing personal – they’ve just had it – as they dealt the ANC its worst ballot outcome since the dawn of democracy.

The Ankoles – Ramaphosa’s ridiculously-named toadies are no doubt plundering the liquor cabinets along with those MPs who will not be going back to the august House. One must feel for them. Just like that; gone are the days of free generators, uncapped data plans and blue light convoys. Social media is having a field day with some users gleefully advising that the cadres pay up on the big Mercs because what lies ahead looks very bleak indeed.

A Facebook post noting the state of things for the ruling party. Image: Facebook.

Elsewhere, the long knives are no doubt being sharpened, accompanied by conspiratorial hushed tones among cadres who once swore unfaltering allegiance to the billionaire president. As the likes of Ace Magashule, Jacob Zuma, Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula amongst a slew of fall guys and outcasts will attest; a day in politics is a long time. One moment you’re Comrade SG, the next you’re spat out like tasteless gum and everybody’s blue-ticking (‘ghosting’ as the ether generation says) you on WhatsApp.

On the back of the ANC’s most damning election result, one can expect that even within the National Executive Committee lurk those who will be baying for Ramaphosa’s blood. They will want the head of the man under whose watch the ‘people’s movement’ degenerated from an untouchable institution into – to steal from one cynical cadre – ‘a Mickey mouse club’ which effectively retrenched at least 71 national cadres. Given the various incriminating leaked audios that have emerged at these NEC gatherings, we know that Ramaphosa is hardly popular amongst the very people he breaks bread with.

A screenshot of yet another leaked Ramaphosa recording.

The so-called RET faction which evidently never really went away is likely plotting his downfall. Whatever ammunition they needed has been handed to them in the 39.77% party showing at the polls. The worst ever…by a staggering and unbelievable 17 percentage points margin from 2019. To add insult to injury they also lost their majority in the legislatures of KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and our own Northern Cape.

ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula’s pre-coalition-talks assertion that removing the president would be a ‘no-go’ zone suggests he’s aware that the pendulum is swinging over Ramaphosa’s head. There will be those calling that he step down. And, given that he was talked out of resigning last year, he may well depart without putting up much of a fight. He seems like a reasonable enough guy to see the writing on the wall, find his pen once more to sign his own resignation and go to lick his wounds at Phala-Phala.

Or maybe when the dust has settled, sound reason will prevail and the cadres will reconcile that if not him, then who? Deputy President Paul Mashatile who walks under a cloud of scandal? Zweli Mkhize, who was at one point fingered for alleged PPE corruption? Clearly, not many hands are clean in the corridors of a Luthuli House that advocates for a living wage but often pays its own staff on the 35th of the month. Or when they’ve first taken to the picket line or ran to the media.

A cursory glance at the results suggests befuddling, unfamiliar patterns in SA voting sensibilities. It seemed that the priority was to simply teach the ANC a lesson, no matter the cost. Despite that former president Zuma is facing a doorstop of corruption charges coupled with his ineligibility to stand as an MP hasn’t stopped his MKP from bagging an incredulous 14.36% of the vote to become the country’s third biggest party. Equally surprising is how effortlessly this party swatted Julius Malema’s EFF down a position, this whilst establishing itself as the biggest party in KZN. The red brigade had looked like they would inch nearer to the second-place DA and establish themselves as the official opposition as early as 2029, but this result must clearly have come as a blindside even to them.

The PA’s Gayton McKenzie and Kenny Kunene arrive at the IEC Results Operations Centre. Image: PA Facebook page/ Bruce A. Joshua Nimmerhoudt.

The other surprising result, the PA, led by Gayton McKenzie, a man most famous for a prison stint and lavish lifestyle, suggests that voters have lost faith in the old parties and right now even someone who used to lead the 26s into criminality could perhaps lead the country to prosperity. This should be unnerving. That is until you look at all the suspect faces who populate the party lists and wonder if the electorate aren’t onto something. McKenzie, goes the defence, has paid his dues – what about those who’ve never seen the inside of a dock? And so in its first general election, the PA walked away with a 2.12% share of the vote, meaning McKenzie will have gone from the cold cells of Grootvlei Prison to the hallowed chambers of the National Assembly.

The Freedom Front Plus which had pulled off a rather impressive performance at the local government elections of 2019 failed to consolidate that showing in this election, dipping slightly in both the national and provincial ballots. Although some might attribute this to an ineffective campaign, perhaps the reality is that conservative and right-wing white South Africa, spooked by the prospect of an ANC/EFF or ANC/MKP coalition thought it best to hedge their eggs in one basket, namely the DA. DA leader John Steenhuisen had reiterated these ‘doomsday’ coalitions and that seems to have paid off.

The usual cast of inconsequential parties turned up pretty much the usual lackluster results. Sadly, despite Rise Mzansi’s Songezo Zibi being touted as the sort of progressive politician that the country needs as well as pocketing a much-publicised ‘donation’ of R15m from Rebecca Oppenheimer, he only managed two seats in parliament. Likewise, Mmusi Maimane’s BOSA.

Already there are reports of the ANC rushing into coalition talks with various parties. From what one gathers from these is that there are internal differences as to who the ANC should sweet talk into such a partnership. There are those who find the prospect of a deal with the DA – considered a pro-business white party in some quarters – reprehensible. It would dent their street credit amongst other afro-nationalist socialists. The likes of Mashatile, who the DA is pursuing corruption charges against is said to be one such unhappy camper. As previously reported here at eParkeni, it seems that the DA had been secretly working on such a coalition from the get-go.

The horse trading cuts both ways, with the EFF seeking the finance ministry as well as the parliamentary speaker positions as conditions for their support. The MKP puts a not at all unexpected deal on the table: we’ll talk to you, provided you first sack Ramaphosa! Surprisingly, Mbalula has stated that the party would likely enter into a coalition on a premise of principles than ideology. This could be a veiled attempt to fend off those who would wish to stand against a possible coalition with parties that aren’t seen to be traditionally ‘African.’

Be that as it may, history will record that this was the most profound election since 1994. Nobody could’ve predicted the startling outcomes. The powers that be certainly didn’t. That a man who served some 17 years in a prison cell will likely be sitting in the House where the laws are decided is hard to wrap one’s head around. Also that the party of a former president whom everybody thought was no threat all and which was born less than a year ago will be the third biggest in the country. But the most stunning thing of all is how ex cadres have often lamented how cold it is outside the ANC. On this election it would seem that the icy breeze was blowing from within.

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